外公去世已经几天了，因为回美签证的缘故，一直没法回国，这次也没法赶上追悼会。很快就要用AP，140没有批下来的情况下用AP，一定是有风险的，但我也不愿意多想了。就这样吧。

 

终于要回国了。老早知道近乡情怯，一去7年，我当然知道我一直不喜欢国内，回去一定会心潮澎湃，但情绪波动对己无益。工作还是要继续，生活也是要继续，不会因为老人家的去世我的事情和麻烦会多一点少一点。资本主义从来没有温情脉脉的面纱。能够保护我的只有我自己。仅此而已。

Introduction

 

Most economists, to the extent that they think about this subject at all, regard the Great Depression of the 1930s as a gratuitous, unnecessary tragedy.  If not Herbert Hoover hadn't tried to balance the budget in the face of an econmic slump; if only the Fedral Reserve hadn't defended the gold standard to the expense of the domestic economy; if not officials had rushed cash to threatened banks, and thus calm the bank panic that developed in 1930-31; then the stock market crash of 1929 would have led only to a garden variety recession, soon forgotten.  And since econmists and policy maker have learned from their lesson-no modern treasury secretary would echo Anddrew Mellon's famous advice to "liquidate labor, liquidate the farmers, liquidate stocks, liquidate real estate...purge the rottenness out of the system"-nothing like the Great Depression can ever happen again.

 

(这一段排比句写的，真impressive，立刻有继续看下去的兴趣了）

 

Or can it? In the late 1990s. a group of Asian economies - economies that produced about a quarter of the world's output and were home to two thirds of a billion people - experienced an econmic slump that bore an eerie resemblance to the Great Depression.  Like the Depression, the crisis stuck out of a clear blue sky, with most pundits predicting a continuing boom even as the slump gathered momentum.; as in the 1930s the conventional econmic medicine proved ineffective, perhaps even counterroductive.  The fact that somthing like that could happen in the modern world would have sent chills up the spines of anyone with a sense of history.

 

(打倒一船人啊，接下去还有更猛料）

 

It certainly sent chills up my spine.  The first edition of this book was written in response of the Asian crisis of the 1990s.  Where some saw the crisis as a specifically Asian phenomenon, I saw as a troubling omen (这个词用的) for all of us, a warning that the problem of depression economics have not disappeared in the modern world.  Sad to say, I was right to be worried: as this new edition goes to press, much of the world, very much including the United States, is grappling with a financial and econmica crisis that bears even more resemblance to the Great Deression than the Asian torubles of the 1990s.

 

The kind of econmic trouble that Asia experienced a decade agao, and that we're all expereincing now, is precisely the sort of thing we thought we had learned to prevent.  In the bad old days big, advanced econmicies with stable government - like Britains in the 1920s- might have had no answer to prolonged periods of stagnation and deflation; but between John Marynards Keynes and Milton Friedman, we thought we knew enough to keep that from happening again.  Smaller countries - like Austria in 1931 - may once have been at the mercy of financial tides, unable to control their economic destiny; but nowadays sophiscated bankers and government officials (not to mentioned the IMF) are supposed to quickly orchestrate rescue pacakges (这个词在一年后的今天，已经远远被用烂掉了） that contain such crises before they spread.（这个人好像对IMF很不待见的说，那是，这个是建立在US, Europe大部分国家是健康的状况下，大国可以惺惺来挽救无法conrol their own econmic destiny的small countries，包括俄国。这个ochersterate，用的是可圈可点，谁说IMF是orchesterate，永远的是本国利益为先，哪里有一呼百应之说）。Government - like that of the Unites States in 1930-31- may once have stood by helplessly as national banking systems collapesed; but in the modern world, deposit insurance and the readiness of the Federal Reserve to rush cash to threatened insititutions are supposed to prevent such scenes.  No sensible person thought the age of economics anxiety was past; but whatever problems we might have in the future, we were sure that they were bear little resemblanance to those of the 1920s and 1930s.

 

But we should have realized a decade ago that our confidence was misplaced.  Japan spent most of the 1990s in an econmic trap（可怜的日本) that Keynes and his contemporaries found that completely familiar.  The smaller economies of Asia, by contrast, went from boom to calamity virtually overnight - and the story of their calamity reads as if it were taken straight out of a financial history of 1930s.

 

At this time, I thought of it this way: it was as if bacteria that used to cause deadly plagues, but had long been considered conquered by modern medicine, had reemerged n a form of resistant to all the standard antibiotics.  Here's what I wrote in the introduction to the first edition: "so far only a limited people have actually fallen prey to the newly incurable strains; but even those of us who have so far been lucky would be foolish not to see new cures, no prohylactic regimens whatever it takes, lest we turn out to be the next victims."

 

（估计这就是大师最得意的一段预言了）

 

Well, we were foolish.  And now the plague is upon us.

 

Much of this new edition is devoted to the Asian crisis of the 1990s, which turns out to have been a sort of rehearsal for the global crisis now in progress.   But I've added a lot of new materials as well, (表示不是炒冷饭），in an effort to explain how the U.S. itself look like Japan a decade earlier, how Iceland found itself look like Thailand, and how th eoriginal crisis countries of the 1990s have, to their horror, found themselves again at the edge of the abyss.

 

(小国，对外界经济体依赖强的经济，unfortunately，一定是会经历这样的命运的)

 

 

Let me admit at the outset that this book is, at bottom, an anlytical tract.  It is not much about what happened as why it happened; the importance things to understand, I believe, are how the catastrophe （这个词我第一次用在2007年，后来发现每一次之前经历的都不能算真正的catastrophe） can have happened, how the victms can recover (really?), and how we can prevent it from happening again.  This means that the ultimate objective is, as they say in business schools, to develop the theory of the case（很cynical么）-to figure out how to think about this stuff. （他不是b-school的，所以很有A-school的骄傲呢）

 

But I have tried to avoid making this dry thoeretical exprositions.  There are no equations, no inscrutable diagrams,. and (I hope) no impenetrable jargons.  As an econmist in good standing, I have quite capable of writing things nobody can read.  Indeed, unreadable writing - my own and others' - played a key role in helping me arrive at the views presented here.  But what world needs now is informed action; and to get that kind of action, ideas must be presented in a way what is accessible to concerned people at learge, not just those with econmics Ph.D.'s （小陆同学显然当时还没有读过这本书，才会有以前的那些评论）,Ayway, the equations and diagrams of formal econmics are, more often than not, no more than a scaffolding used to help construct an an intellectual edifice.  Once that edifice has been built to a certain point, the scalffolding can be stripped away, leaving only plain English behind.  （美国人那么听presentation和plain English communication一套的..）

 

It also turns out that although the ultimate goal here is analytical, much of the writing involves narrative.  Partly this is because the story line - the sequence in which events happened - is often an important clue to what theory of the case makes sense. ( for example, any fundementalist view of economic crisis - that is, a view that economies only get the publishment they deserve- must come to grips with the peculiar coincidence that so many seemingly disparate economies hit the wall in the space of a few months.)  But I am also aware of that the story line provides a necessary context for any attempts at explanation and that most people have not spent the last eighteen months obsessively following the unfolding drama (like me..) Not everyone recalls what Prime Minister Mahathir said in Kuala Lumpur in AUgust 1997 and relates it to what Donald Tsing ended up doing in Hong Kong a year later; well, thhis book will refresh your memory.

从小最爱问的问题是，好人还是坏人。大人往往不知道怎样回答才是正确的答案。等到现在自己变成大人了，才发现这个世界不是黑白分明，大部分还是深深浅浅的灰（咦？我有没有拾人牙慧？）

 

最新听的podcast是关于letigation的，有一个episode是关于如何处理在出庭之前突然出现的证据。

 

在美国律师公会说，如果在出庭之前突然发现意外的证据，implying原来认为是无罪的原告很可能是有罪的，或者相反，在这种情况下，ethics的指导不能假装不知道，而且是必须和对方律师透露这新的证据。即便这样做可能导致官司输掉。不然对本人和律所声誉都有很大影响。

 

也许大部分律师是这样处理的。在Boston Legal中美貌的苏格言妞去对方律师那里陶瓷，回来要表功却被本律所的人骂了一顿，而且还被拎回到对方律师那里对词。真正是shame on you.

 

这样说和做的assumptions有两个：1）人是理性的；2）在受到利益冲突的时候，人也不会做出不ethical的行为。

 

真的是这样的么？of course not.

 

这两天千夫所指的AIG，不正是被公司律师说，因为我们在contract中要付那些executives很高的bonus，所以这166m dollars一定得付给他们。什么逻辑？这些律师有的是怎样的ethics standard？这些拿了纳税人的钱的人又有怎样的ethical standard? 这个公司作决定的高层难道只会听律师的，没有他们自己的ethics standard嘛？然后引发众怒后只会说，our lawyers told us to do so。what is the responsibilities? Who own the decisions? Unfortunately, in corporate america, NOBODY will claim themselves as decision makers or take the ownership。

 

我前面骂过的胡兰成，一定是有他自己的ethics，或者说，zero ethics，他的标准估计就是腐朽文人说的，万花丛中过，片叶不沾身，或是，宁可负遍天下人，修将天下人负我。这样的人，可以善终并且至老都有无数的女生愿意心甘情愿的送上来。这是什么ethics?

 

然后回到我熟悉的医生话题上来。当然，和普通人比，医生，和律师一样，都有极高的智商，并且有很强的沟通和表达能力（当然我也就美国而言）。医生，也和律师一样，被认为是非常理性的。However, again, it is not true。我访问过的很多医生，因为受potential lawsuits的制约，（当然这个得大大感谢以John Edwards为首的专门打医疗诉讼的律师们），千方百计cover themselves first，一定要病人签订免责协议先。很多时候就算有好药，也不愿意开，因为担心副作用。或者敷衍病人，问病人，你觉得你有啥病？不是他们不合格，而是他们不愿意承担责任。这些医生，应该在医学院受过很高的ethics训练，但遵守的人有多少？

 

Too much whining.

 

 

天下人都在看小团圆，我当然也不例外，最先看到小团圆要出书居然还是从gay friend那里看到。虽说如此，并不愿意太专注的读，因为调子之悲凉和冷漠，愈发的张爱的风格，不想过分的陷进去，因为于人于事无益。相比之下我宁可追八卦，把天涯上名噪一时的内线八卦给溜了一遍，其他的七七八八也顺了一眼。

 

原来如此。

 

可怜的女人。不过是一名可怜的自以为爱过然后就不能自拔的女人而已。看看年份其实和胡兰成认识不过24岁，几乎可以算作初恋，哪里就可以就这样了呢？可惜张爱虽然聪明过人，在感情上算不得聪明。被30，40岁的不知道廉耻的wsn骗了去，居然就这样了。而写书人对自己太残酷，一点点都不肯粉饰太平，甚至还写老女主角若干岁。仿佛要证明这一切和年龄无关（那和什么有关呢？大概是阅历吧）。如果将女主比作sex & city中的人物，估计最相近的就是Kerry，可惜就连Kerry也是爱自己更多。可惜女主不仅没有samantha或者mirenda这样的清醒的朋友，连号称是好友的苏青，居然也登堂入室和胡兰成上床。可惜那时候没有所谓的self help的专家兼栏目，不然女主完全可以和Oprah或者Dr. Phil对话，虽然都是垃圾节目，但好歹人家也替最近大热的因为被Chris Brown打但是心甘情愿跑回去的Rihanna抱不平，然后告诫天下无数以为可以通过xxxx就能挽回男人的心的女人们，what a joke!

 

一个萎缩男就这样毁了一个最最兰心惠质的女人的一生。很多人说李安的色戒简直通透张爱的神髓，可是我还是觉得李安美化了胡兰成。尤其找了梁帅哥来演。

鄙人和所在公司哈的东西不谋而合：比如我们都哈m公司，还有我们都哈P公司。这种不谋而合不知道是好事还是坏事。而这种哈的气氛在很久以前就发展成极致，比如我们用的PPT template都是m公司制作的。公司里的小团体的一群高层，或者是来自这个m公司或者是p公司。（和high school或者junior high的成帮结派估计也没啥区别）。

 

话虽如此，公司里大部分还是无味的少数民族科学家（中国人印度人等等）和无聊的新泽西美国白人，前者high IQ but low EQ，后者low IQ but high EQ。如果m公司和p公司这些IQ和EQ皆高的人和他们能够谈拢，那也是一件很惊人的事情。

 

（当然，最没劲莫过于我这类眼高手低，IQ和EQ都平平的人，哪里都进不去，反而更悲哀。）

 

因为我仍然在看A.G.lafley的The game changer和两本m公司edit的论文。 有很长一段时间公司实施的是brand centric的策略。现在看the game changer有些恍然大悟的意思。（虽然目前是和brand centric渐行渐远，部分似乎也证明了it did not work)。比如我们和IDEO也一起做过design产品prototye的项目，我们也曾经re-decorate我们的open office，希望能够通过design体现品牌的价值。（殊不知pharma的品牌价值就聊聊而已。而且Rx products能够repackage的design也有限）。

 

P&G强调的是两个和消费者的接触面，two moments of truth: #1 the moment when consumer buy the products, #2 the moment when consumer use the products。如果要转嫁到药物的消费方面，显然怎样也谈不拢。第一，我很难想象从医生手中拿过处方或者到药房fill Rx是一种愉悦的购买行为，第二，从不觉服用药物可以带来非常的感觉。当对于商品的购买和使用还停留在utility的层面，brand value实在太难体现。即便是Liptor或者Nexium这样的blockbuster。

 

tbd

 

 

Today is the first working day of the summer hours.   That is something I have really hated the Bush Administration...among the very few actually I dislike that administration, different from the general public.   With the claim of saving energy, that administration pushed the summer hours start well ahead of other countries, and end it much later than most of the other countries.  Other countries, I mean, the Europeans. 

 

Anyway, for the next three weeks, we are going to have 5 hours instead of 6 hours difference from the mainland Europe.  I cannot believe the "summer" should start now - after all, we just had our heaviest snow one week ago, for god's sake, it is by no means summer. 

 

This summer hour will last until end of October, by then, we should have had our first snow. 

 

If there is anything o8 could do (haha, here is something new to refer to the new administration. o8), that is to pass a law allowing the summer hour actually starts in the real summer.

 

(after a tiring summer hour first working day)

P&G is the best consumer goods comany in the world, and my knowledge about this is very lagging behind what was actually going on there.  As such, it was surprising for me to know that between 2000-2006 it was not performing very well - it neither delivered the consumer's most adored products nor it was viewed as supplier's best partner.  With that, its at then new CEO  A.G.Lafley took on the tast of innovation.  That was the book "the Game Changer" was about. 

 

At first glance, when I started reading last week, I was not impressed with the show-off numbers presented by the author.  Now I went over the 2nd chapter.  I am very happy with what I read.

 

Having been a professional marketing researcher, I was very impressed with the level that P&G brought research to:

 

The story was about how P&G understands the consumer bahaviors of Mexican and how they manage to change "insights" into "innovation".  It was first eye openning to understand the completely different psycologics and bahviors of the Mexican women in laundry, and how they take pride in delivering clean and good-smelling cloths. It was then great to hear how P&G live their customers' life and transformed that into a better one.

 

Certainly it reminded me a dozen things, among which one wil be the different behaviors I know about the Chinese women.  First only a small %tage stay-at-home moms are there in China, secondly not a lot women iron every single piece of their clothes.  Again it reminded me how funny that emerging market was always viewed as one.  And one from Europe or America would always prone to think that the "transferrable knowledge" from one will prosper in another.  Not necessarily.

 

At the same time I am reading about Motorola's famous "Motorola University".  Although the author (who must have been the key champion of the training center) is really modest and retrospective of what they have done, for me it is sad to know that the reality was not that they "like" to do so, but they were forced, partly due to the illetearate rate of the Motorola employees.  In 1990, 40% of them would fail in tests including questions such as "4 was what percentage of 100".  While six sigma was the burning task for Motorola, the laying-off tenured employees was not then a choice for the company (or they just did not want to do so), it was not hard to imagine why "training" was turned into "education", because all the basic skills were missing from their people.

 

Again it reminded me of my own company.  I wish they offered a written test when they hired employee, just to test the basic verbal and maths skills of every single person that the company hired.  Again, to hire people is such a considerate process, because once you hire someone it would be extremely hard for you to get rid of that person, why not take another step to make it a better process.

 

Finally my thoughts are around the interesting article that I read about the "ecosystem" that all the business/companies are in.  Every company can be a prey or predator, the difference from the biological environment is that we cannot just let go those who "die", that we must help them to move ahead together, otherwise we will risk to running an unstable society.

 

 

最近显然有点无聊，以至于在豆瓣上开了一个窝。上面就是link。好处是找书，电影都特别方便。可惜我的视野比较狭窄，不看不评无用之书，看的书都没啥共鸣。

 

又去见了我们做的很不错的同胞，我认识的人中间很少的在美国作marketing的，（当然Helen是一个）。每一次和这个人会面都会有一些新的体会，正好可以乘这个momentum再做一点事情。我一向自负有global perspective，现在真是又得好好检讨自己，明明有些现实就摆在眼前，却视而不见。一定是和我们的sales混的时间太多了以至于我也变得短视起来。所谓sustainable growth，真是转瞬间就忘了。

 

在我的机器上装了SAS，明明知道技术不是我要发展的方向，但考虑到我的新老板的机器上也装了SAS，那还是学一点吧。反正多一点技术榜身也没啥不好的，就算技术类工作有可能outsource到印度去，我们自己也是发展中国家来得不是？

 

借了几本满有意思的书。估计传记类会放一放了。其中一本HBR１９９６年出的１９８０－１９９０年的论文集，可是居然现在看来也一点也不过时，看来我一直以为business的时效性不是那么时效的。１０多２０年前管理学者们指出的弊病，今天还是比比皆是。大公司的好处是，啥都见过，坏处是，啥都不能改变。可见人类的惰性是总是在那里的，人性或者psycological barrier，要克服和技术的进步并无直接联系。还借了本P&G老总说的如何turnaround，才看了几章，还没有明显的tranferrable的meat。不能只是把写书作为军功状的阿。

 

最近时间过的真快啊。